President Donald Trump's visit to China this week, despite being short on immediate deals, has been a resounding success for Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The visit showcased China's ability to project itself as an equal to the US on the global stage and set the tone for a relationship focused on cooperation and managed competition. Trump's effusive praise and the carefully crafted spectacle of pomp and pageantry in Beijing have created a fitting backdrop for China's vision of a new era of "constructive strategic stability" between the two powers.
One of the key takeaways from the visit is the importance of Taiwan to China. The Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and seeks to absorb it into China, by force if necessary, as part of its vision for "national rejuvenation" by 2049. Xi made this point subtly but clearly during the visit, and Trump acknowledged the issue, saying that he and Xi discussed it "in great detail." The US president also indicated that he would make a decision on arms sales to Taiwan soon, which could significantly impact the relationship.
The optics of the visit were carefully crafted to impress Trump, and the US president reflected back just the kind of optics that China's foreign policy establishment will relish. Trump's arrival in Beijing with a phalanx of top American CEOs, who were told they were there to "pay their respect" to Xi and to China, speaks volumes about Beijing's status and its aim to project China as an alternative leader to the US. Xi is also expected to remain in the headlines next week as Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled to visit China.
The visit also buys Beijing time to continue its rise across technological, military, and geopolitical fronts. US tech controls and tariffs can upend supply chains and hurt companies, slowing China's momentum. The US learned just how powerful China's leverage is over the world's supply of processed rare earths when Beijing tightened its grip on these strategically critical materials to fight US tariffs last year. While a stable US-China relationship can have positive effects for the global economy, how that "strategic stability" is defined could also give China license to dispute US actions that it doesn't see as supporting that stability.
In the end, the visit has set the stage for a continued period of goodwill between the two leaders, with Xi accepting Trump's invitation to visit the US in the fall. However, the issue of Taiwan will remain a sticking point, and the US's handling of its unofficial relationship with Taiwan will be closely watched by Beijing.
